Strategically, Automattic would be worth the most to Facebook because all those WordPress.com blogs represent a substantial portion of the Web and shifting/merging WordPress.com comments to Facebook identities would be right in line with their goal of becoming our main form of identity online.

Providing ads for all that content would also be a huge asset to anyone who harbors serious hopes of challenging Google's ad network, a business in which scale is everything. Some candidates there would be Microsoft, Yahoo, AOL, or some sort of combination of two or all three. Potential buyers would be willing to pay quite a premium in return for being able to expand their reach so rapidly.

Facebook, too, would value the opportunity to operate an advertising network beyond the confines of their own site and the relatively social nature of blogs would be suited to their existing expertise in matching ads with social content.

Google will, of course, seek to block any attempt by Facebook to increase it's already terrifying social reach and, without a doubt, they will do all they can to stop any competing ad network getting such a vital boost - Google know all too well that, despite all their varied activities and products, advertising is still the only thing that brings in any real money.

Facebook's main problem is that, dogged by irritating legal challenges and worryingly shaky market conditions, they have not yet been able to launch their IPO, which they need in order to make any large acquisitions and, make no mistake, Automattic will be a seriously large acquisition.

If Facebook does manage to have a good IPO, they will try to rope in a few major acquisitions early on, to counter the predictable claims that their growth has peaked and that the stock is ridiculously overvalued. Targets will include Automattic and smaller fish such as Disqus. Twitter has most likely already made a deal with Apple to give it first refusal on any Facebook or Google offers.

Google knows that it needs to block any Facebook acquisitions but they also know that, until the IPO actually happens, they are not under any real pressure to make pre-emptive offers.

Automattic and their investors know, too, that they will not get the amounts they really want until Facebook is in play and Google has to counter offers with real money behind them, so, don't expect anything to happen on the Facebook vs Google front until after the IPO, possibly next year but it could be pushed back much further if the markets continue to spasm.

Microsoft

Microsoft has clearly been courting Automattic for quite some time but, although it has plenty of money, it has nowhere near the same level of strategic synergies - Automattic is simply worth far less to Microsoft than would be to Facebook.

Having said that, acquiring such a pro-Open Source company - and the willingness of that company to be purchased by Microsoft - would be yet another attempt to signal to the world that Microsoft has changed.

Although currently still ludicrously profitable, Microsoft is living on old glories and their image desperately needs a revamp. Some would even argue that, far deeper than image, the company actually needs a completely new direction and an infusion of fresh blood from Automattic might be just what they need to re-energize their online efforts.

Ballmer is very much part of the original Microsoft and has failed to lay out a credible vision for the future. The rumor is that he will soon be shown the door and, who knows, perhaps his successor will attempt to establish his new vision with the purchase of a company full of Open Source hippies who just happen to be sitting on some prime Web property.

Talented, experienced, respected new blood is also a very rare asset and, as bizarre as it may sound, I could well imagine Matt being groomed to become the CEO of Microsoft in a decade or so. On the whole, though, I don't see Microsoft making a serious attempt to buy Automattic until Ballmer is gone and, even then, I don't see how anyone at Microsoft could justify the amount that would be needed to beat both Facebook and Google.

Implications for WordPress.org

None.

Any buyer will bend over backwards to be seen as being respectful to the Open Source project. If anything, it is likely that more employees will be funneled in, resulting in more code contributions over the longterm, not less.

Obviously, some people will rage that Automattic is selling out and that the larger company is Satan but the likely result of WordPress.com being integrated into a larger company, especially Facebook, will be an increase in the number of people blogging and the number of people reading those blogs. That, in turn, will increase the number of people who become interested in the Open Source project and the WordPress community.

My impression is that the Automattic folks would get a rougher ride within Google, as their interests don't really coincide with Google's main focus, Google tends to neglect purchases and, unlike Facebook, PHP is not held in very high regard in the Googleplex.

I believe that there is zero chance of Apple ever buying Automattic.