We've had suspicions about download manipulation in the plugins directory for a few years now. We've welcomed the active installs metric as it definitely shows how many folks are using the plugin.

One way I've seen plugin developers manipulate the download statistics was by releasing new versions every 1-3 days. Most cases at least they add something or fix a bug, but sometimes I suspect this trickle was on purpose in order to game downloads. The active installs metric allows plugins to maintain a normal release schedule without being penalized download wise. Thank you WordPress team!

Shame on Swift theme, I would take a hard line and ban the developers for a month (or longer) from the WordPress theme/plugin directory. If cheaters knew there was a consequence then they would not cheat.