@Chip Bennett - The 3.7.1 update offer you see in the transient is for manual updates only. The auto update is a separate offer that is only being provided to about 75% of installs at the moment. It shows as a "response" of "autoupdate" instead of "upgrade". When your site receives the instructions, you'll end up with not one but two offers in the transient. See find_core_auto_update() and get_core_updates() (both in wp-admin/includes/update.php) for more.