Jeff,
I have to disagree with your assessment of my prediction. While I was definitely wrong about the specific price points, my overall point has definitely come true. This time last year, everybody and their brother was selling premium themes. But a year later, and the men have been separated from the boys. The creme has risen to the top, as it were.

There are a few game changing, market leaders (iThemes, StudioPress, WooThemes, Thesis), and there are the underclass (ThemeForest, etc.), selling their themes for significantly less than the market leader. The split DID happen.

And BTW, a good portion of sales for a premium theme site is the multi-use package, which usually does run $100-$200 per sale.